No, not Rock Band.
I concur with Beaudrot that there isn’t really any pattern to the state-by-state trends. Obama is performing above expectation in some understandable places (New Mexico, Wisconsin) and some twilight zone states (North Dakota, Indiana.) On the other hand McCain is looking good in Florida. If you don’t quite get the methodology, Bowers’ original piece with the full data is here.
The more useful element is that terrific interactive map. I’m a little more negative on our chances than most Democrats I’ve spoken to, mainly because I’m counting on a break towards McCain based on negative campaigning as election day gets closer. Hit the “2004 results” tab on the map menu. Look at the numbers and tell me which states we flip this time. I would never count on Florida (do you trust Charlie Crist? We’ve seen this movie before…) and Ohio appears to be a crapshoot – PPP had Obama up 8 within a week of Rasmussen showing McCain by 10. if we don’t win either of those, we’ll need some combination of Virginia plus grab-bag, Iowa plus New Mexico and Colorado, Iowa plus Montana plus Nevada plus Alaska, and it gets increasingly ridiculous to follow. If we were to lose Michigan or Pennsylvania, we’re in deep shit. (The former is a serious possibility if McCain picks Romney, though the latter seems increasingly unlikely as beet-red central and northern Pennsylvania shift from 20-point Bush country to something more competitive.)
Point is, for all the talk about redrawing the electoral map we’re still fairly reliant on grabbing either Florida or Ohio. On the bright side, Obama’s Iowa composite is better than +5, and the Hawkeye state opens up many of those other random combinations. At some point I’ll do an excel chart of this…
Take a few fun minutes clicking around the map and see what combinations you can come up with.